Market Stats
Spring is Springing and Houses are SELLING in Arlington Virginia!
April 21st, 2009 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats
I just pulled the contract writing stats for last week – the housing market in Arlington is heating up - and WOW is all I can 
say. A few weeks ago I reported that for the preceding week there were 69 contracts ratified - that’s HUGE. In fact, I began keeping these statistics as of the beginning of 2008 – there hasn’t been a week with that many written/ratified since before January of 2008! Now, for 3 weeks in a row, we’ve been in the 60’s – 69, 65 and 62 respectively (and I will say that if I re-run it tomorrow or the next day, a few more stragglers could show up).
These numbers are amazing. In fact, for 2008 only 4 separate weeks reported contract writing in the 60’s - 2 weeks in April, 1 in May and 1 in June. So I’d say between the historically low interest rates, the home buyer tax credit and good inventory, we’re poised to keep this trend going!
If you’re considering buying and are still not sure if this is the right time or not – I would encourage you to seriously evaluate the cost of waiting – higher interest rates, less flexible sellers and less inventory could drive your monthly payment up by hundreds of dollars!
Feel free to call me anytime to discuss – meanwhile – HAPPY SPRING!
Jennifer
PS - the photo is one I took recently while on vacation in Phoenix at the Desert Botanical Gardens – there’s an amazing Dale Chihuly exhibit - it’s worth the time stopping in if you find yourself in Phoenix! His glasswork is extraordinary!
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is HERE – NOW!
Like what you’ve read? Subscribe here
| Discussion: No Comments »
The High end of the Arlington Virginia Real Estate Market
April 3rd, 2009 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats
I was preparing today to pull some statistics together for March, although it’s a little early since some agents haven’t yet updated from their late-month settlements. In any case – I noticed a particularly heavy load on the high end and it intrigued me! Currently there are 24 listings under contract whose LIST PRICE is over ONE MILLION. WOW – there are 145 active listings over $1M – so while 24 doesn’t seem like much, I went back over the last few months to see what’s been happening.
Contracts Written Over $1M
March, 2009 – 14 contracts
February, 2009 – 6 contracts
January, 2009 – 7 contracts
December, 2008 – 7 contracts
November, 2008 – 10 contracts
October, 2008 – 8 contracts
September, 2008 – 19 contracts
So I had to go back 6 months to find a month where there was more activity in the $1M+ market. Part of this is a result of the tightened lending restrictions (read: lack of jumbo money over $729K); part of it is the excellent interest rates we have now and lastly, I believe it’s the rebound in the stock market that is allowing those buyers who had tabled decisions to move and they are now seeing increases once again in their investment accounts.
It’s not for everyone - but if you’re considering buying in the high end, I have lender contacts who can get the job done. Likewise, if you’re considering selling and thought it was impossible… think again!
Happy Friday
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is RIGHT around the corner!
Like what you’ve read? Subscribe here
| Discussion: No Comments »
Home Sale Activity in Arlington Virginia - Strength in Numbers
April 2nd, 2009 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats
As I like to report, tracking ratified contracts helps keep a pulse on what the real estate market is doing here in Arlington County. For the past 2 weeks, we’ve seen an uptick by almost 25% in contract writing activity - and by this, I don’t mean just the ones written - heck, I’ve written a few lately that haven’t gone anywhere – I’m talking about fully ratified contracts – where both parties have agreed to all terms.
Both this past week (3/21–3/27) and the week before (3/14–3/20) there 
have been 51 contracts ratified. Last year at the same time we were in the high 40’s – so while it’s just a few - for those who feel the market is still slowing, I’m not too sure. It will be very interesting tracking these numbers as we hit April and May – the “spring season.” With interest rates down below 5% it makes me wonder why anyone on the fence is still sitting on the fence. Listen up people – now’s the time. IF you’re in the market and prepared for a purchase to begin with – don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying it’s right for everyone - but if you’ve been on the fence, get off - look around, smell the roses, check out your options. I’m waiting to hear from you!
Happy Thursday!
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is RIGHT around the corner!
Like what you’ve read? Subscribe here
| Discussion: No Comments »
Houses are a-selling around Arlington VA!
March 24th, 2009 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats
As you know, I am a big fan of numbers. Although I guess I should add that people can twist numbers and statistics sometimes to show what they want to show. However, there’s one set of numbers that just don’t lie - you know what they are… CONTRACTS RATIFIED! And last week we exceeded last year’s numbers for the same week. We ratified 51 contracts in Arlington county last week compared with 49 in 2008. Out of the 11 weeks reported so far in 2009, 3 of them had numbers higher than last year! YES – that’s big.
I’m not sure the story it tells, but one thing’s for sure - there are small indicators all around us that we might be heading for better times… Contract writing is stabilizing - of course, 4.5% interest rates don’t hurt a bit! The stock market is showing some glimmers of some gains (according to CNN, last week saw the 2nd consecutive week ending with a gain since May of 2008) and this week seems to be (so far) heading in the same direction! I’m not getting ahead of myself, a few good markers do not a turn-around make, but I’m optimistic.
I’m working with many buyers right now – after all, if you’re considering buying, why wouldn’t you drop what you’re doing and jump in NOW? Did you read what I said in the last paragraph? 4.5% interest rates? Of course you must have good credit, a job and some assets, but that’s not news. If you’d like to consider getting into the game and would like a friendly competent realtor to show you the way, drop me a line! I always have time for new clients and referrals!
Meanwhile, celebrate spring! The sky is blue the air is clean and crisp – flowers and trees are blooming (ahhh-chooo) and it’s a great time to be alive!
Happy Tuesday
Jennifer
| Discussion: No Comments »
How’s the Market - February 2009 - Arlington Virginia - NUMBERS
March 11th, 2009 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats
Hello Folks!
Bet you thought I forgot about you? Not a chance. I have been busy – and had the pleasure of attending the annual Keller Williams conference in Orlando Florida a few weeks ago. Always an inspiring event but takes a while to internalize all of the input – it’s like drinking from a fire hose - so much helpful information to come back and implement in our businesses.
Anyway, that question that’s on everyone’s minds is back… how’s business? Well, I’d have to say February was a significant improvement over January by a long shot. We saw almost DOUBLE the contract writing activity - that’s EXCELLENT because without writing and ratifying contracts, there would be no sales - so that’s our biggest indication of trends, which is why I track that separately as well. I’m also noticing that the lower priced homes are what’s generally moving, with a few higher priced sprinkled in.
Here are February 2009 Numbers:
The low “sold units” number is due to the low contract writing in January of this year. We nearly doubled the contracts written on single family homes from 62 in January to 105 in February. Condos, we increased from 93 in January to 129 in February. This will continue to help those sold numbers push upwards and thus absorption rates continue to come back into line.
Here’s how the contract writing looks - it’s a pretty complicated looking chart, but I’m overlaying 2009 activity on 2008 activity. It’s definitely slightly behind, but trending similarly (which you’re really seeing the beginning of spring season here).
The green line is the 4 week moving average for 2008 and the blue line is the 4 week moving average for 2009. That’s where we can see trends - for the actual numbers, see below. I’ve tracked it in “week 1, week 2, etc” so I can compare 1 year against the next…
You can see that weeks 6–9 basically represent February and it’s very strong! In fact, week 7 showed more contracts written since week 33 last year which is the middle of August! So, are we on track? I’d say so - homes are selling and if you’d like to discuss it further, please don’t hesitate to call. I can perform in depth analyses for your neighborhood and you can evaluate from there.
Happy Wednesday!
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is RIGHT around the corner!
Like what you’ve read? Subscribe here
| Discussion: No Comments »
So it’s really a buyer’s market….. right?
February 12th, 2009 Categories: Alexandria Dirt, Arlington Dirt, Falls Church Dirt, Market Stats, McLean Dirt, Northern Virginia Home Buying, Northern Virginia Home Selling, Northern Virginia Real Estate Dirt, Reston Dirt
Last night I met with some new clients who were delightful (you know who you are if you’re reading this!)… a topic came up that comes up a lot and I felt was worthy of discussion today – The media is ALL over the idea that it’s a buyer’s market - but what I’d like to remind you is that real estate is local, it’s really hyper-local. What does that mean?
First, we need to define what IS a buyer’s market? The economic definition of a buyers market reads like this:
A buyer’s market is a market for a good where prices are falling and there are more parties interested in selling than buying.
OK – that makes sense. But how does it translate to real estate? Typically we look at absorption rates – or simply put, how long will it take to sell through our current inventory of homes. I found another definition which generally follows what I’ve always heard which is this:
A seller’s market is defined by absorption rates of 1–4 months
A normal market is defined by absorption rates of 5–6 months
A buyer’s market is defined by absorption rates of 7+ months
One very important factor to keep in mind is that numbers can swing wildly month by month because you are looking at 1 month in a bubble. I’m sure a learned economist might take exception to the quick and dirty, back of the napkin numbers we’re looking at here, but nonetheless I was fascinated by what I found.
So, when I sat down this morning to pull together some facts and figures to share, before I even got started, I figured I’d find that in the closer in markets where things haven’t been in a nose-dive decline, that I’d find lower rates and in markets that are saturated with inventory, I’d find that buyer’s market conditions really exist. Take a look at the chart below. I had ordered it loosely by geography - distance from the city.
At first glance I was surprised to see the LOWEST absorption rates in Manassas - now I don’t do a whole lot of business out in Prince William County – most of my business is done in the closer in areas of Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church and the like… I was a little surprised by McLean’s super high rate of 16+ months of inventory, but then, it all made sense. Look at the chart below, re-ordered by average list price in that city.
Interesting, huh? With the ONE exception of Falls Church, it lines up EXACTLY with average selling prices. What this tells me is that in areas with reasonable prices, properties are selling – at a very good pace in most cases. This ALSO tells me that with a few exceptions, our metro area is largely within the “normal” ranges – it’s what I’ve been saying, but here are the numbers to show for it.
The other interesting thing I found while researching this morning is that it really doesn’t matter what you label things (e.g., market conditions, outside factors, etc…) - what matters are 3 things:
1) low asking prices
2) acceptable interest rates and
3) large inventories
So there you have it – as a buyer, please don’t think you are driving the boat - that you can get whatever you want and then some from today’s sellers. Likewise, as a seller, recognize a good deal when one comes along. Work with the buyers and their agent, be flexible and realistic. Hey, it sounds like I just described a “normal” market.
Give me a call if you’d like to discuss further – it’s truly a fascinating study.
Happy Thursday
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is RIGHT around the corner!
Like what you’ve read? Subscribe here
| Discussion: 1 Comment »
January 2009 Sales Figures for Arlington County Virginia - the words “so-so” come to mind…
February 9th, 2009 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats
I’ve finally come down off of the nice weather “high” from yesterday - what a day, wasn’t it? I think we all needed a little dose of spring. I really like winter as a season, but yesterday was like a shot of energy! So now, we hunker back down for a little more cold and wait out the daffodils that are right around the corner…
But back to real estate – I just finished doing a little review of January - not so bad, but not great, my friends. In a lot of ways, we are right about where we were last year – Inventories are up in both condos and single family homes. Contract writing is down VERY slightly but solds are up –
We’re also seeing lower Average Selling Prices but fewer days on market, too. I’d call it pretty much a wash, truthfully. 22207 is not flourishing as it once did, but the “deals” are found in other parts of the county and believe me, buyers are looking for deals!
Anecdotally, I was out over the weekend and visited 3 open houses with clients yesterday – traffic was steady, one agent reporting that in the first 2 hours over 20 groups had already been through. These were, for the most part, priced to sell in entry level price points for their respective locations. I would bet that at least 2 of these homes will go under contract this week and the 3rd, maybe within another week or so.
Here are the absorption rates - in case you don’t remember what that means, it’s the length of time it will take to sell through our current inventory. The numbers are interesting, but are highly dependent on whether it was a good month, or not. For example: typically in 22207, we are averaging about 5–6 months of inventory. You will see from this table that we have almost 20 months of inventory at the current sales rates – we all know that’s not accurate - just had a VERY slow January. We’ll see if February brings us different results!
(I liked the serenity of this photo with the clouds reflecting in the water and the mesh lounge chair - maybe lingering thoughts of yesterday’s warm weather.)
Have a fantastic week - I’m always here to discuss the real estate market for you, your home, your neighborhood or your investment inquiries – I look forward to talking with you!
Happy Monday
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is RIGHT around the corner!
Like what you’ve read? Subscribe here
| Discussion: No Comments »
Contract Writing Surges in Arlington County - January Week 2
January 21st, 2009 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats
Hello all - what a day yesterday was! The area is certainly a-buzz with Inauguration fever… but in the days leading up to yesterday, contract writing was a-buzz!
In 2009, Week 2, a whopping 41 contracts were ratified - that’s the most in any single week for the past 2 months and a 25% increase over last year’s 31. I can’t say that we will stay 25% ahead of last year, but it was a good week, that’s for certain. I do believe that these extra low interest rates are helping – and we’re starting to see a few great properties come on that are priced well.
So stay tuned – this week isn’t looking quite as strong, but with the MLK holiday as well as the Presidential Inauguration, our focus might have been elsewhere!
Have a great week
Happy Wednesday
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is RIGHT around the corner!
Like what you’ve read? Subscribe here
| Discussion: No Comments »
A Year in Review: 2008 for Lexington Square in Arlington Virginia
January 16th, 2009 Categories: Arlington Condos, Arlington Dirt, Market Stats, Neighborhoods
I promised to give you a snapshot of some condo buildings and some neighborhoods for 2008 – it was overall a good year for Lexington Square - located between Ballston and Virginia Square metro stops. It’s a gorgeous property that was developed right around 2000. It offers a pool, exercise facility, party room, etc… The lobbies are tastefully decorated and I have found the residents LOVE living here!
So, 23 units changed hands in 2008. To get an idea how that looks compared with historical sales, see below:
2003 – 66 units
2004 – 64 units
2005 – 34 units
2006 – 42 units
2007 – 32 units
So it fits with the trend - also, sellers, if they are trying to protect their investments, are waiting for the market turnaround and I expect 2009 to bring more Lexington Square listings than 2008 and for that number to be on the rise each year over the next few years.
Let’s take a closer look at the units that sold this year:
ONE BEDROOM
TEN 1–bedroom units changed hands this year ranging in price from $315K to $357K. We’re seeing on average, a little over 1% of seller subsidy, but interestingly, I only saw it for the 1 bedroom units. They are selling for an average of 95% of list price and on average, the contract is coming after 47 days on the market.
ONE BEDROOM/DEN
THREE 1–bedroom/den units were sold this year, all within a very tight settled price range of $395K-$400K – almost no seller subsidy as I mentioned earlier but these units sold for only 92% of list (on average) and days on market was the longest of all categories as well at 76 days. Perhaps if these units had been priced better at the onset, we would’ve seen that percent of list much higher and perhaps days on market much lower? Food for thought…
TWO BEDROOM
EIGHT 2–bedroom units moved this year selling for an average of 96% of list! Almost no seller subsidy and sales were after an average of 65 days on the market. They sold for as low as $413K (this was a bank owned property - for more information on bank owned properties, email me directly to discuss) and as high as $455K.
LARGE TWO BEDROOMS
TWO of these “jumbo” units sold this year – both are 1,358 square feet and both sold in under 20 days. One was priced at $535K and sold for list price; and the other sold for $575K which was 96% of list. Again, no seller subsidy. These units are a little more in demand as there are fewer of them - they also have an additional half bath.
Overall, while the sales numbers are down, as a whole, the units that sold went for 95.5% of original list price (this takes into account any price reductions) and averaged less than 60 days of marketing time. It’s a good solid property and whether you’re considering purchasing to live in, purchasing for investment, or selling your Lexington Square unit, give me a call. I have a lot of experience in the building (also lived there for a little while) and would love to help you with this great property.
Happy HAPPY Friday!
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is RIGHT around the corner!
Like what you’ve read? Subscribe here
| Discussion: No Comments »
Are we Busy Selling Real Estate in Arlington County?
January 15th, 2009 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats
Yes – but I have a feeling we’re going to get a whole lot busier. Many of us have been discussing the recent rise in sign calls, open house visitors, buyer showings, etc… which is great news. The official start of spring, while when you look at the calendar is not for another 2 months, the 
“spring real estate” market really begins in February.
As last year, I will continue to report on contract writing because as I’ve said many times before, I believe that’s the truest indicator of market activity and behavior. So, for last week, what we’ll call Week 1 of 2009, we had 23 ratified contracts – on the low side, but it’s what we expect. I will say as a preview of what’s to come for the week we’re in, we already have 26 and we have a few more days to affect that number!
If you’re thinking now might be the time to start the process, give me a call – I can help you prepare for a successful transition whatever that means to you!
Happy Thursday!
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is RIGHT around the corner!
Like what you’ve read? Subscribe here
| Discussion: No Comments »
Copyright © 2007 Arlington Dirt Real Estate Blog 