Northern Virginia Home Buying
So it’s really a buyer’s market….. right?
February 12th, 2009 Categories: Alexandria Dirt, Arlington Dirt, Falls Church Dirt, Market Stats, McLean Dirt, Northern Virginia Home Buying, Northern Virginia Home Selling, Northern Virginia Real Estate Dirt, Reston Dirt
Last night I met with some new clients who were delightful (you know who you are if you’re reading this!)… a topic came up that comes up a lot and I felt was worthy of discussion today – The media is ALL over the idea that it’s a buyer’s market - but what I’d like to remind you is that real estate is local, it’s really hyper-local. What does that mean?
First, we need to define what IS a buyer’s market? The economic definition of a buyers market reads like this:
A buyer’s market is a market for a good where prices are falling and there are more parties interested in selling than buying.
OK – that makes sense. But how does it translate to real estate? Typically we look at absorption rates – or simply put, how long will it take to sell through our current inventory of homes. I found another definition which generally follows what I’ve always heard which is this:
A seller’s market is defined by absorption rates of 1–4 months
A normal market is defined by absorption rates of 5–6 months
A buyer’s market is defined by absorption rates of 7+ months
One very important factor to keep in mind is that numbers can swing wildly month by month because you are looking at 1 month in a bubble. I’m sure a learned economist might take exception to the quick and dirty, back of the napkin numbers we’re looking at here, but nonetheless I was fascinated by what I found.
So, when I sat down this morning to pull together some facts and figures to share, before I even got started, I figured I’d find that in the closer in markets where things haven’t been in a nose-dive decline, that I’d find lower rates and in markets that are saturated with inventory, I’d find that buyer’s market conditions really exist. Take a look at the chart below. I had ordered it loosely by geography - distance from the city.
At first glance I was surprised to see the LOWEST absorption rates in Manassas - now I don’t do a whole lot of business out in Prince William County – most of my business is done in the closer in areas of Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church and the like… I was a little surprised by McLean’s super high rate of 16+ months of inventory, but then, it all made sense. Look at the chart below, re-ordered by average list price in that city.
Interesting, huh? With the ONE exception of Falls Church, it lines up EXACTLY with average selling prices. What this tells me is that in areas with reasonable prices, properties are selling – at a very good pace in most cases. This ALSO tells me that with a few exceptions, our metro area is largely within the “normal” ranges – it’s what I’ve been saying, but here are the numbers to show for it.
The other interesting thing I found while researching this morning is that it really doesn’t matter what you label things (e.g., market conditions, outside factors, etc…) - what matters are 3 things:
1) low asking prices
2) acceptable interest rates and
3) large inventories
So there you have it – as a buyer, please don’t think you are driving the boat - that you can get whatever you want and then some from today’s sellers. Likewise, as a seller, recognize a good deal when one comes along. Work with the buyers and their agent, be flexible and realistic. Hey, it sounds like I just described a “normal” market.
Give me a call if you’d like to discuss further – it’s truly a fascinating study.
Happy Thursday
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is RIGHT around the corner!
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2008 in Review - Arlington County Home Sales - Stats, Stats and more Stats…
January 8th, 2009 Categories: Arlington Condos, Arlington Dirt, Market Stats, Northern Virginia Home Buying, Northern Virginia Home Selling, Northern Virginia Real Estate Dirt
As we sit her amidst possibly the greatest financial crisis in modern times, we do tend to think “how could this possibly be the best time to buy or sell real estate?” (I’m sure that’s the first thought you have - ok, well maybe not the first, but if it’s on the list at all - keep reading…)
I read a blog post of a colleague of mine a few days ago and a reader absolutely slammed the real estate agents/industry for the mess we’re in – as one colleague so nicely put it, most of us are not representing misguided investors who are looking (or WERE looking) for a quick buck in flipping 
and/or rehabbinb and reselling properties. Most of us were working with people who were looking for homes to live in. Most of us were making sure that they were working with reputable lenders and that they understood what they were getting into - what the tax benefits are of home ownership, and what the risks are. We were (and still are) educating our buyers and sellers about the times and hopefully setting correct expectations… OK, I digress a bit - but a word for the readers, people will always need to buy and sell homes when they outgrow them, or they need less space; when they change jobs, or a family situation changes. There are a multitude of reasons people need to move - but it happens every day – and I will be there to represent at least some of them and I am committed to doing my job well and giving my clients the best representation possible.
OK – on to why you’re here – STATS… first, let me start off with December numbers – some good, some not so good – here’s how the month looked:
In order to provide some perspective, I keep running tallies and here are the stats for the entire year for both Condos and Single Family Homes:
What I see from these is that the condo market seems off – active listings are holding, but contract writing was down – settlements were up from November, but I think that’s a trickle down of the rate and availability of money issues that we saw in the October/November time frame. After all, more condos settled in December than since August.
For the Single Family market, I see somewhat of a trail off in contract writing, but solds are holding – fewer than in the past few months, but not dramatically so…
In any event, I decided I wanted to look at some trending – 2008 as it compared with 2007 - so here are what I think are the most interesting tables of all: the Condo market and the Single Family market broken down by sales, Average Selling prices and Days on Market in 6 month chunks.
Look at the unit trail-off in 2008 - we had a total of 1700 units sell in 2007 and only 1,110 units in 2008. WOW - that’s a 53% decline in unit sales – however, I would say overall, prices are holding; up in the 2nd half of 2007, down in the 1st half of 2008 and back up again in the 2nd half of 2008 – Days on Market have also increased on average. This is interesting to me because being IN the market, it doesn’t feel this way. It could be a result of financing restrictions, fha restrictions on certain buildings/complexes, etc…
Now, for Single Family:
We see the same drop off in unit sales - down from a total of 1,034 in 2007 to just 851 in 2008 for a 21% decline. Average Selling Prices have declined as well - but days on the market have held pretty steady. These are very interesting numbers to look at.
I try not to get too bogged down with numbers and here’s the bottom line I see.
1) Houses are still SELLING – Buyers are still buying
2) FEWER houses and condos are selling this year than last - there are fewer buyers in the market
3) IF you decided you need to or would like to sell your home – you can still expect the marketing time to AVERAGE 60–80 days, depending on what and where you’re trying to sell
4) Interest rates are at record lows - this will begin to bring buyers into the market.
Have we reached bottom? Who knows - depends on who you listen to. We have some exciting changes in store for us and a sort of new beginning to look forward to when our new president takes office on January 20th.
If you’d like to discuss your options, whether buying or selling, I would be honored to receive your inquiry and look forward to working with you on a successful (and pleasant) real estate transaction!
Happy Thursday
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is RIGHT around the corner!
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Colonial Village 2008 - A Year in Review
December 30th, 2008 Categories: Arlington Condos, Arlington Dirt, Market Stats, Neighborhoods, Northern Virginia Home Buying, Northern Virginia Home Selling, Northern Virginia Real Estate Dirt
I thought this might be a good time to go over some sales statistics from 
some of the larger and more popular buildings, developments and neighborhoods in Arlington Virginia for 2008. Since I have previously written about Colonial Village, I thought it a good place to start.
Looking back at the condo sales in Colonial Village for 2008, there have been 24 units sold (settled) since January 1, 2008 which is 17 1–bedroom units and 7 2–bedroom units. Let’s first look at the 1–bedroom stats:
Average sales Price: $276K (highest was $286K, lowest was $239K)
Average (net) Sales Price as a percentage of list: 96%
Average seller subsidy: $5,000 (so expect about 2%)
Average Days on Market: 36 (however, the median was only 16 since there was 1 unit that took 196 days to sell)
Then - for the 2–bedroom stats:
Average Sales Price: $343K (highest was $364K, lowest was $315K)
Average (net) Sales Price as a percentage of list: 95%
Average Seller Subsidy: $3,700 (so relatively less than for the 1–bedroom units)
Average Days on Market: 44
As for right now, there are 6 1–bedroom units on the active market listed between $265K-$292K. There is only 1 2–bedroom unit currently available and it’s listed for $349K.
If you are interested in learning more about Colonial Village as a place to live OR if you’re interested in listing your home there, please give me a call to discuss.
Happy Tuesday
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is RIGHT around the corner!
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Does the Real Estate Market REALLY shut down in December?
December 29th, 2008 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats, Northern Virginia Home Buying, Northern Virginia Home Selling, Northern Virginia Real Estate Dirt
So here I sit, Christmas was last week and I hope everyone has enjoyed a
little down-time with family and friends. Whether you celebrate Christmas, Hanukkah or some other holiday, I hope you’ve had a chance to decompress a little bit - I have! But now is the time I look towards 2009 with excitement and a renewed energy – meanwhile, I’ve been wondering – does the real estate market REALLY shut down in December? So I did a little research…
Other than erratic blog writing, I’m not really sure I could have quantified what the real estate market does in December. Anecdotally, we’ve always said “there won’t be any new listings between Thanksgiving and New Year’s” and we say “nothing’s happening” and perhaps those are all excuses. Here’s what I learned…
Fact 1 - there were actually 39 BRAND new listings from December 15, 2008 through this moment. (compare that with 187 total in November and 278 total for October and so forth, so yes, it’s a relatively small percentage, but hey – there ARE actually NEW listings!)
Fact 2 – there were 23 contracts ratified between December 20 and December 26. That’s amazing!
So, (remember I said I did a “little” research) from this I can conclude that there are still new listings coming on the market and there are still buyers writing contracts. While we’re not seeing the volume of a typical spring month – I wouldn’t expect that. Considering my expectations were pretty close to nil, I would say we’re doing OK!
January is a great time for new beginnings. If you’d like to discuss your upcoming real estate needs, buying or selling, please give me a call. 2009 is going to be a GREAT year!
Happy Monday
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! And remember, spring is RIGHT around the corner!
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Confidence in the Real Estate Market is Building in Arlington Virginia
November 18th, 2008 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats, Northern Virginia Home Buying, Northern Virginia Home Selling, Northern Virginia Real Estate Dirt
OK, so if you’re a regular reader, you’ve figured out by now that each week I will report to you the number of contracts written/ratified for the previous week – I am here to tell you, we had a big week last week!
Yes, that’s right! 46 contracts were ratified last week - with 1 exception, that’s the biggest week we’ve had since August (we did have a week late September/early October when we had 47). There were about as many single family homes as condos with a few townhouses and duplexes tossed in – there were properties that sold in 1 day, and in fact 6 sold un under a week, and 11 sold in under 2 weeks. There was actually one condo that had been on the market a total of 1,289 days. YIKES… I would NOT want to be that owner or agent!
If you’d like to discuss placing your home on the market OR if you’re thinking of beginning a search, I’d love to hear from you.
Happy Tuesday
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! Fall is here!
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October 2008 Sales Figures for Arlington County Virginia
November 11th, 2008 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats, Northern Virginia Home Buying, Northern Virginia Home Selling, Northern Virginia Real Estate Dirt
Here I am again to give you the overal market statistics for Arlington Virginia for October 2008. I have to say, I expected dismal – and with expectations like that, I was pleasantly surprised. October really was pretty steady from September – similar inventory levels as well as contract writing and solds. So it got me thinking - lately I’ve had people quoting numbers to me like “Arlington market has decreased 5–10% in the past 2 years” and other such statements… I’ve been tracking statistics for a while, so I went back to October of 2007 AND October of 2006 and take a look for yourself:
Condo Observations:
Average sales prices are within a range of $425K-$450K with a slight decrease each year – but remember, this is just ONE month compared to the same month in years past - not any sort of average. Unit sales are UP this year and days on market are lower than in either of the previous 2 years.
Single Family Home Observations:
These numbers are a little more scattered and tougher to draw conclusions… however, across the board, we are not seeing the steady declines year over year for the past 3 years as you would be led to believe. In fact, we had healthy selling and good selling prices with fewer days on the market than in years past.
Overall, I would say that in Arlington County we have fairly balanced opportunities for buyers and sellers alike. Our absorption rates are telling as well:
This tells us how long it would take to sell through our current inventory – most would tell you that as long as we’re in the single digits, we’re doing OK!
On a final note, you may or may not be aware that I have been reporting on contracts written on Arlington County properties – so for the week ending November 6, 30 contracts were written. While that’s down from last week, it is an appropriate level to resume where things were as of early October. The rolling average graph now looks like this:
So, the upshot is…. the market is fine. People are still successfully buying and selling homes. I would be delighted to talk with you further about representing you on your home purchase or sale.
Happy Tuesday – go HUG a Veteran and thank them for their service to our great country!
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! Fall is here!
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Top TEN Reasons Northern Virginia is the BEST place on Earth - Day 2
November 3rd, 2008 Categories: Alexandria Dirt, Area Attractions, Arlington Dirt, Falls Church Dirt, McLean Dirt, Northern Virginia Home Buying, Northern Virginia Home Selling, Northern Virginia Real Estate Dirt, Reston Dirt
I wrote a whole post last week and my computer ate it! REALLY - and it had so many links and pictures and I was so discouraged that only now have I returned to my computer to make an attempt to re-create it.
So, without further ado, next on my list of WHY Northern Virginia is a GREAT place to live and play:
PROFESSIONAL SPORTS
Yep – Professional Sports. We’ve got it all covered!
Football: We are home to the 6–2 Washington Redskins (Hail to the Redskins!) and while I know Baltimore is 40 miles to our North, many also consider the Baltimore Ravens to be a home team as well.
Basketball: We’ve got the Washington Wizards representing our fair city in the NBA; and the super cool chicks of the WNBA, the Washington Mystics. GIRL POWER!!!
Baseball: The AMAZING Washington Nationals and their new, world class stadium. Again, with our northern neighbors, we also have the Baltimore Orioles here, which, for a long time, was our team until the Nats arrived on the scene a few years ago.
Hockey: The Washington Capitals – now THIS is cool – 
right in our own back yard for us Arlingtonians… A few years back the Caps relocated their headquarters to a newly built iceplex in the Ballston area of Arlington. It’s a beautiful facility, and you can go and watch them practice and even get out there on the ice yourself – for me, reminiscent of how I spent many a Friday night in high school, but we need not dwell on that…
Soccer: We are home to the beloved DC United – our Major League Soccer Team.
I think it’s great that we have so many great professional sports teams here and I believe just one more reason why the DC area is a great place to live. Stay tuned as I reveal more and more reasons why I love it here!
Happy Monday (on the EVE of a big Election Day!)
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! Fall is here!
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The Top 10 Reasons Northern Virginia is the BEST place on EARTH!
October 28th, 2008 Categories: Area Attractions, Local News, Northern Virginia Home Buying, Northern Virginia News, Northern Virginia Real Estate Dirt
I have had this post rolling around my head for weeks - trying to figure out the best way to put it out there… there’s so much depth behind EACH area that I think I need to publish them one at a time. I wanted to create my own list of why this area is so great for those of you who might be considering moving to the area whether it be a job, a new administration or whatever it is that might bring you here. So pull up a chair and sit for a while!
First some background… Other than the first 10 weeks of my life, which by the way, I have very little recollection of, I grew up here in Northern Virginia. Spent the first 5 years in Falls Church, then we moved to Reston. We lived there from 1st grade through 5th. Then we moved to McLean where we lived for the end of elementary school, all of middle and high school. My parents stayed in the area and I went off to Fredericksburg to the University of Mary Washington - not too far away! I then returned as a young adult, got my first place on my own, entered the job market and had a lot of fun living close to the city - oh, and did I mention having lots of fun?
After a few years, I left the area (followed a man, wouldn’t ya know) and moved to the San Francisco Bay area where we lived for 6 years, followed by a detour through the Atlanta area for 5 years and then, returned here to Northern Virginia because I believe it’s the BEST place on EARTH… So you see, I am actually highly qualified to write this post about our great community!
So now, without further ado, I offer you ONE of my TEN reasons why Northern Virginia is awesome!
PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Northern Virginia is home to some of the BEST, Top Tier public schools in the entire country. There are many places to go for quantitative information on Virginia Schools. The Virginia Department of Education website has a wealth of information on schools across the entire state. But one of my favorite sites is www.GreatSchools.net. It is the ONLY website I have ever run across that actually allows you to compare schools by test scores and also see other relevant information about the school.
According to Newsweek Magazine’s List of the Top 1,300 High Schools for 2008 article, the Northern Virginia region was home to 8 of the top 100 public high schools in the country!
There are many other reasons to love this area – so stay tuned as I bring them to you daily over the next 10 days!
Happy Tuesday!
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! Fall is here!
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Contract Writing Activity in Arlington Virginia - NEWS FLASH… October 2008
October 3rd, 2008 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats, Northern Virginia Home Buying, Northern Virginia Home Selling, Northern Virginia Real Estate Dirt
Lately, it seems that the entire country is heavily focused on the financial crisis we are currently facing – most especially as it relates to obtaining mortgage financing. People are asking me how this news is affecting the real estate market. Just about every day someone wants to talk about how this has affected real estate transactions, business, prices, etc… anecdotally, if you have a down payment, good credit and income, not much has changed.
So I started wondering if in fact this has affected the number of homes going under contract in the past weeks. This morning I sat down and did some research on Arlington County. In fact, since the beginning of January, 2008, the LOWEST number of contracts written in any given week was the week of January 12th with just 33 contracts written. There was a dip last week (week of 9/19) which produced the 2nd lowest week with only 36 contracts written and I have to believe that it was a direct result of the bailout news.
The highest weekly contracts written occurred the week of June 21st with 65 contracts written. The average covering the 9 month period was just under 50 contracts/month. Here are the actual numbers graphed as well as a 4–week rolling average to better see a trend line:
I believe what we’re seeing is normal seasonality. Although the trend line heads down pretty steeply over the past few weeks, this week (the past 7 days), more contracts were written than in the previous 5 weeks time. So go figure…
What I do believe is that the market has knee-jerk reactions to global economic news and the general availability of mortgage money, the scare of whether or not the sky is falling in and how it will or does affect their financial position.
Any way you look at it, there will be people who need to buy and sell homes. In closing, is this a good time to sell? It’s not bad – with 40–50 homes going under contract each week (remember that’s upwards of 200/month) there ARE people buying homes. Is this a good time to buy? Well, if you have to buy, why not buy when the prices are fair, interest rates are low and sellers will negotiate? That sounds a lot better than the frenzy of just 4 years ago!
Please remember, always be responsible – do the right thing for yourself and/or your family. Be financially conservative and you’ll be way better off in the end.
I’m always happy to discuss this or anything else real estate related.
Happy Friday!
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! Fall is here!
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Basement or No Basement?
August 19th, 2008 Categories: Alexandria Dirt, Arlington Dirt, Falls Church Dirt, McLean Dirt, Northern Virginia Home Buying, Northern Virginia Real Estate Dirt, Reston Dirt
I just received an interesting question from a reader – he has found a house that he really likes and it is built on a crawl space (the 3 ways homes are built are on a concrete slab, on a crawl space or on a basement - or some combination). He’s been advised by a family member who is out of state to be leary of any home that’s not built on a full basement. The reasoning was that it’s less than a full house. So he asked me what my thoughts are.
My initial words of wisdom to him were just to be sure he’s comfortable knowing what he’s getting into. A lot of people WANT that basement as overflow space – rec rooms, play rooms, home office, guest rooms, etc… Some want it for just storage – in which case, an attic or a well built shed would suffice. Also it depends on the area – for example in an area where half of the homes are basement and half are basement, it might not matter. But it’s not something that can EVER be added – so what you get is what you get.
I decided to do a little research. We know anecdotally that here in Northern Virginia most homes do have basements – so I took a look through the active listings for detached single family homes in the various surrounding counties to get a sense of what percentages have basements vs. not… Here are some statistics on homes WITHOUT basements compared with the total available home market (at least as of today).
So, this is just good info to keep in mind in terms of market expectations. There is a home buyer for EVERY home – a lot depends on what the market conditions are at the time of trying to re-sell. But that’s a topic for another day.
If you’d like to see homes with OR without basements, I’d love to hear from you. I’m experienced either way!
Happy Tuesday
Jennifer
Serving all of your real estate needs in Arlington, McLean and the entire Northern Virginia Region!
Contact me today for a free home valuation or buyer counseling session! Fall is right around the corner!
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